I study macro-energy systems and how they can be transitioned toward net-zero carbon energy.
Questions
My research focuses on three topics:
- Where do we want to go: Assessing the performance of alternative net-zero energy system design options and generating future scenarios for actionable planning guidance, particularly under uncertainty. Example works: here, here, here.
- How do we get there: Evaluating climate and energy policies for steering socio-technical systems toward desired system states. Example works: here, here, here, here, here.
- How do we know: Advancing state-of-the-art optimization-based methods for modeling energy systems with a particular focus on high-resolution policy modeling under political economy constraints. Example works: here, here, here.
Challenges
Addressing these problems requires research that overcomes the following challenges:
- Structural transformations: Future energy systems will not look like today’s but be increasingly reliant on weather-dependent renewable resources and electrification. Understanding future systems thus increasingly requires electricity-centric models based on optimization methods that capture how power systems are operated.
- Bringing policy modeling from theory to reality: Policy makers have a limited set of levers at their disposal to meet multiple objectives while facing political constraints. This requires climate policy modeling beyond traditional approaches based on theoretical uniform carbon prices.1
- Decision making in a sub-optimal world: The second-best nature of national economies stands in contrast to traditional models built on the assumption of efficient markets.2 As energy transitions are shaped by market failures, adoption-driven innovation, and network effects, there is a growing need for fit-for-purpose analytical methods.
Solutions
My work informs policy decisions by leveraging new mathematical modeling methods that draw on operations research, engineering, and economics, with a particular focus on capacity expansion and energy system optimization and equilibrium models. For example, recent work by myself and colleagues has shown that:
- Near-optimal climate policy mixes can enable lawmakers to overcome political constraints standing in the way of climate policy targets. Incorporating renewable subsidies in climate policy can enhance political feasibility at a small loss of economic efficiency (Dimanchev and Knittel, 2023).
- Decarbonizing electricity production is hindered by electricity market inefficiencies stemming from incomplete of long-term contracting. This means there is a strong rationale for governments to implement long-term contracting mechanisms, such as contracts for differences (Dimanchev et al. 2024).
- Expanding transmission infrastructure between regions rich in variable renewable energy and reservoir hydropower is an important priority for decarbonizing energy systems (Dimanchev et al. 2021)